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美国大豆协会周度快报03-26

来源:食品商务网   发布时间: 2007-03-26 13:01:43

参议院启动立法程序以延长生物柴油税收抵免制度

大豆生产者担心国会可能会批准生物柴油税收优惠制度于2008年底到期时终止,为消除这种担心,参议院农业委员会的两名委员已采取了第一步措施。

参议员诺姆•克来曼(明尼苏达州共和党人)和布兰彻•林肯(阿肯色州民主党人)提出了一项立法,要求将税收优惠制度延期到2017年12月31日。目前的税收优惠方式为,在石油基柴油中每混合一加仑农业生物柴油(用原始植物油及动物油等物质加工而成的燃油),则给予一美元的补贴。对于其它类型的生物柴油,税收优惠额为每加仑50美分。

“美国对国外石油的依赖是很危险的,为使美国摆脱这种依赖,我们把生物柴油作为解决问题的核心,” 克来曼说。“如果本法案中所提出的长期延续对生物柴油的税收优惠制度能够获得通过,那么我们就可以确保这种关键的可再生燃料的产量会继续增长。”

“自从国会出台这些重要的鼓励措施以来,全国生物柴油产量以及生物柴油厂商数量都出现了大幅上升,”林肯说。“如果真正想要降低对国外能源的依赖,我们就必须为国内可再生燃料行业创造增长的条件。”

美国大豆协会说,美国农业部的分析表明,每生产5000万加仑生物柴油,大豆价格就会上涨1%。“因此,从2006年至2015年4.98亿加仑的预计生物柴油产量来看,到了2015年,农场售出的大豆价格将上升近10%,”美国大豆协会说。

国会曾以名为《2004年美国迅速提升商业力量产生法案》的立法形式通过了最初的生物柴油税收激励措施。当时,美国的生物柴油行业共有22家工厂,产能为1.57亿加仑。如今,生物柴油行业已扩大了四倍多,生物柴油工厂已达105家,产能共计8.64亿加仑。

NOPA压榨量数字低于预计,豆油库存继续上升

美国油籽加工者协会(NOPA)上周报告说,2月份的大豆压榨量为356万吨。这就暗示普查局的压榨量数字为376万吨。NOPA公布的2月份豆油产出率虽高于1月份,但却低于预计。NOPA的豆油产出率为11.34英磅,这就意味着普查局的豆油产出率为11.28英磅。

尽管大豆压榨量及豆油产出率均小于预计,但豆油库存却连续增长了四个月,甚至进入了创纪录的数字区间。利润不佳而造成的产量和消费量下降可能是豆油库存上升的原因所在。根据NOPA报告推算出的国内豆粕使用量低于预计,而一周出口销售量(约为22.7万吨)却达到了销售年度的最高点。

豆油期价在很大程度上与石油市场保持关联,就生物柴油的生产而言,基本处于保本价格。因此,对2006-2007销售年度的价格预测没有发生变化,许多分析人士预计2007-2008年度的价格将下降0.1美元/英磅。由于豆油期价可能会随能源价格而保持坚挺,因此豆粕份额预计会下降,豆粕始终处于疲软地位。

布什政府目标指向富裕农场主

美联社说,布什政府希望对除富裕农场主以外的几乎每个人采取税收减免。布什总统正在要求国会停止对调整后毛收入所得额超过20万美元的人给予农业补贴。目前的收入所得额上限为250万美元。

从退税额来看,富裕农场主最集中的地方是华盛顿特区、新泽西州和加利福尼亚州。这是美联社提供的布什政府的分析结论。

立法委员告诫说,这种限制无意中可能会伤害美国乡村一些诚实勤恳的农户。布什政府的分析则以国家税务局(IRS)的数据为依据,给出了不同的解释。“这些人中有相当一部分居住在新泽西、华盛顿特区等地,”农业部长迈克•约翰斯在接受采访时说。“这些人可能是投资型所有者,他们有着很高的收入,同时还在某地拥有一处农场。从任何意义上讲,他们都可谓处境良好,”约翰斯说。

总而言之,据布什政府估计,约有3.8万农场主将被排除在补贴名单之外,其中2.5万人是真正的农场主,另外1.3万人是通过农场收取租金的人。200多万人向IRS申报了农场业务。

另外,参议员查克•格来斯雷(衣阿华州共和党人)正打算采用民主党的预算方案来加强政府对农场付款的限制。上周,格来斯雷对参议院说,如果国会不降低个体经营所能收取的金额,农场主们有可能失去城市对农业补贴的支持。

格来斯雷和参议员拜伦•道根(北达科达州民主党人)提议修订非约束性预算方案,将单个农场主的付款额限定为每年25万美元。通过补贴限定节省出来的资金相对不会太高,5年下来仅为4.86亿美元左右,这是因为去年商品价格出现大幅上升。根据目前的法律,农场主每年可以收到36万甚至更多的付款。

由于能源市场坚挺,大豆类产品期价上升

在投机性购买以及能源市场坚挺态势(比如原油价格回升了2美元)的支持下,大豆类产品在3月22日收盘时价格上升。据报道,基金又买入了2000份大豆合约、1500份豆粕合约以及1500份豆油合约。尽管在美国供货面临压力且南美单产看好的情况下,期货交易价格远远高于基础价格,但由于美国的播种面积预计会比去年下降500万英亩,因此许多卖家仍持观望态度,等待3月30号《播种面积及谷物库存预测报告》的公布。5月份大豆期货价格上升$1.93为$283.57,7月份上升$2.02为$289.54,8月份上升$2.11为291.83;5月份豆粕期货价格上升$1.21为$246.25,7月份上升$0.66为$251.77,8月份上升$0.99为$254.52;5月份豆油期货价格上升$3.97,为$689.60,7月份上升$3.97为$699.74,8月份上升$3.97,为$704.59。

The Soy Export Weekly Update

Senate Bill Begins Process To Extend Biodiesel Tax Credit

Two members of the Senate Agriculture Committee have taken the first step to relieve the anxiety of soybean producers who worry that Congress might allow a biodiesel tax credit to expire on schedule at the end of 2008.

Under the legislation introduced by Senators Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), the tax credit would be extended through December 31, 2017. The current tax credit provides a $1 subsidy for every gallon of agri-biodiesel –– which can be made from substances such as virgin vegetable oil and animal fat — that is blended with petroleum diesel. For other types of biodiesel, the tax credit is 50 cents per gallon.

“Biodiesel is central to our efforts to free America from our dangerous dependence on foreign oil,” said Coleman. “By passing the long-term extension of the biodiesel tax credit contained in this bill, we can help ensure that production of this critical renewable fuel continues to grow.”

“The amount of biodiesel that has been produced and the number of producers has exploded across the country since Congress offered these important incentives,” Lincoln said. “If we are serious about reducing our dependence on foreign sources of energy, we must give our renewable fuels industry the tools it needs to grow.”

According to the American Soybean Association, a USDA analysis indicates that every 50 million gallons of biodiesel produced raises soybean prices 1 percent. “Consequently, the 498 million gallons of biodiesel that is projected to be produced between 2006 and 2015 will increase farm level soybean prices nearly 10 percent by 2015,” says ASA.

Congress passed the original biodiesel tax incentive as part of legislation known as the American JOBS Creation Act of 2004. At that time, the U.S. biodiesel industry included 22 plants with a capacity to produce 157 million gallons of fuel. Today, the industry has grown more than four-fold with 105 plants capable of producing 864 million gallons of biodiesel.

NOPA Crush Lower Than Expected, Oil Stocks Still Building

NOPA last week reported its February soybean crush to be 3.56 million tonnes. This suggests a Census crush of 3.76 million tonnes. NOPA’s February oil yield improved from January, but less than was expected. The NOPA oil yield of 11.34 pounds would indicate a Census oil yield of 11.28 pounds.

Though the crush and the oil yield were smaller than anticipated, soybean oil stocks increased for the fourth consecutive month and further into record territory. A slowdown in domestic use for biodiesel production because of poor margins likely has contributed to the building of oil stocks. Domestic use of soybean meal implied by the NOPA report was lower than expected, while weekly export sales were a marketing-year-high of about 227,000 tonnes.

Soybean oil futures have been largely tied to the petroleum market, staying near their break-even price for biodiesel production. Therefore, price expectations are unchanged for the 2006-07 marketing year and with many analysts expecting the price to be 0.1 cent per pound lower for 2007-08. The meal share is expected to decline as soybean oil prices are likely to remain firm along with energy futures and soybean meal has been the weaker product.

Bush Administration Targeting Wealthy Farmers

The Bush administration wants tax breaks for nearly everyone, but not when it comes to wealthy farmers, says The Associated Press (AP). President Bush is asking Congress to halt farm subsidies to anyone making more than $200,000 in adjusted gross income. The current income cap is $2.5 million.

The places with the biggest percentage of wealthy farmers, according to tax returns, are in Washington, D.C., New Jersey and California. That’s the conclusion of a Bush administration analysis obtained by the AP.

Lawmakers warn that such a limit might unintentionally hurt honest, hardworking families in rural America. The Bush analysis, based on IRS data, tells a different story. “A fair number of these people do live in states like New Jersey, some in Washington, D.C.,” Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns said in an interview. “These are probably investor-owners, people that have a large income and they own a farm somewhere. By any definition, they’re doing very well,” Johanns said.

In all, about 38,000 farmers would be cut off, the administration estimates. That includes 25,000 farmers and 13,000 other people who get rental income from farms. More than 2 million people report farm businesses to the IRS.
 
Meanwhile, Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) is trying to use a Democratic budget plan to tighten limits on government payments to farms. Last week, Grassley told the Senate that farmers face losing urban support for agricultural subsidies unless Congress reduces the amount of money that individual operations can collect.

Grassley and Senator Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) proposed an amendment to the nonbinding budget plan to cap payments to individual farmers at $250,000 a year. The savings from the subsidy cap would be relatively small, about $486 million over five years, because commodity prices have risen sharply over the past year. Under current law, farmers can receive up to $360,000 or more per year.

Soy Complex Up On Strong Energy Markets 

The soy complex was up on March 22 reflecting support from speculative buying and strength in the energy markets that included a $2 rally in crude oil. The funds reportedly bought another 2,000 soybean contracts, and 1,500 contracts each of meal and oil. Though futures are trading well above fundamental value amid burdensome U.S. supplies and good yield reports from South America, many sellers are remaining on the sidelines heading into the March 30 Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports due to expectations for U.S. planted acreage to be down at least 5 million bushels from last year. May bean futures closed up $1.93 finishing at $283.57; July was $2.02 higher, closing at $289.54; and August gained $2.11 ending at $291.83. May meal was up $1.21 closing at $246.25; July was $0.66 higher, finishing at $251.77; and August increased $0.99 to finish at $254.52. May oil closed $3.97 higher to finish at $689.60; July was up $3.97, closing at $699.74; and August gained $3.97, ending at $704.59.

责任编辑:wentao

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